Budget escalation

Observed Official projection

Actual participant payments, official forecast vintages, and slider-driven scenario budget measures.

Forecast vintages use different cost bases. Vintage lines are shown only on Nominal; Real, GDP share, and Cwth spending share recompute actuals and scenario values from the Phase 2 macro context.

Scenario controls

Scenario settings

Annual participant growth rate 6.0% New child participants per year 46,000 Share of child participants retained into adulthood estimated assumption 60% Disability-sector workers per 100 participants estimated assumption 45 Provider entities per 100 participants estimated assumption 2.3 Share of workers who are also participants estimated assumption 5.0% Share of provider owners who are participants estimated assumption 3.0% Share of workers with a family member who is a participant estimated assumption 20% Hypothetical feedback strength (more providers -> more entry) HYPOTHESIS 0 The hypothetical feedback line does not render until this is above zero. Annual growth in average support cost estimated assumption 5.0% Inflation rate (for real-dollar conversion) estimated assumption 3.0% Annual GDP growth estimated assumption 3.0% Annual Commonwealth spending growth estimated assumption 3.0%